Was last week’s inaugural flight of China’s
second stealth fighter linked to the ongoing 18th National Congress of the
Chinese Communist Party? Was President Hu Jintao demonstrating his relationship
with the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), a powerful lever for elevating his
protégés to the apex Politburo Standing Committee?
Several unanswered questions surround the October 31 debut
of the J-31 Shenyang fighter, which the pathologically secretive PLA took
unusual pains to publicise.
Having already unveiled the J-20 Chengdu stealth fighter in
January 2011, China
is the only country that is developing two separate stealth fighters. The US
is developing the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter, albeit in three versions; Russia
is working on a single design, the PAK-FA, to which India
has hitched its wagon. Separately, Japan
is developing the ATD-X demonstrator.
Other intriguing questions include: Given the J-31’s close
resemblance to the US F-35 fighter, has China
reverse-engineered it from blueprints that Lockheed Martin had reported stolen
in 2009 from the computers of six American aerospace subcontractors? Is the
J-31 for export only, which would explain the publicity that the PLA is giving
it? Or will the PLA use the J-31 as an air superiority fighter while the larger
J-20 strikes ground targets, an allocation of roles that mirrors the employment
of the F-22 Raptor and the F-35 by the US Air Force? Or is the F-31 a
competitor to the J-20, with the better of the two designs destined to go into
production?
But the question that most worries the Indian Navy is: does
the sturdy landing gear that experts have spotted on the J-31 indicate that the
new fighter will operate from Chinese aircraft carriers, giving the PLA Navy,
or PLA(N), an aerial combat capability that would outmuscle India’s in the
Indian Ocean?
China
is focusing keenly on naval air power. Just a month ago China’s
first aircraft carrier, the Liaoning,
had joined the PLA(N) fleet. The 58,500-tonne Liaoning
— bought as scrap from Ukraine
for a floating casino, but then renovated in Dalian
shipyard into an operational carrier — is the PLA(N)’s first attempt at
learning the complex skills of aircraft carrier operations. This is difficult
learning. The US Navy lost some 12,000 aircraft and 8,500 airmen from 1949-1988
in developing its naval aviation skills. But Indian planners believe the
Chinese will learn quickly, especially when the Liaoning
is joined by more modern aircraft carriers that are already being built in China.
Indian Navy planners tell Business Standard that the
PLA(N)’s three-pronged process — learning aircraft carrier operations; building
one or two modern carriers; and inducting the J-31 — could take a decade or
more. But after that, PLA(N) aircraft carrier battle groups could operate in
the Indian Ocean, fielding fighters that are superior to
India’s.
The Indian Navy’s 45 Russian MiG-29Ks, purchased for two new
aircraft carriers, are capable fighters today, but would certainly be
outclassed by the stealthy J-31 whenever it enters service. The navy’s new
carriers — the 44,000-tonne INS Vikramaditya that could join the fleet next
year; and the unnamed, 40,000-tonne Indigenous Aircraft Carrier (IAC) that will
be ready only by 2017 — are both fitted with ski-jumps that are custom-built
for the MiG-29K to take off.
If the navy wants a more capable fighter, e.g. the Dassault
Rafale, which the Indian Air Force is buying, or the F-35C, which is the naval
version of the Joint Strike Fighter, it will need an aircraft carrier with a
catapult rather than a ski-jump. If the navy designs its second IAC (a
60,000-tonne vessel that is still being conceptualised) with a catapult on the
flight deck, a fifth-generation stealth fighter could soon follow.
The navy has already signaled such an interest. In 2006, and
again in 2007, New Delhi asked
Lockheed Martin (which runs the F-35 programme) for briefings on the F-35B, a
short take off and vertical landing (STOVL) variant that the US Marine Corps
will fly off its smaller aircraft carriers called Landing Helicopter Docks. While
the F-35B could operate from a ski-jump, the F-35C needs a catapult to propel
it off the flight deck.
Will the J-31 push the navy towards more advanced fighters
and a second IAC with catapult assisted launch? All options remain on the
table. Then naval chief, Admiral Nirmal Verma, speaking in Delhi
on August 7 shortly before he retired, did not rule out “having an entirely
different carrier with a different complement of aircraft.”
That decision, however, would be a difficult one, keeping in
mind that two carriers would already be fielding the MiG-29K, and a new fighter
would complicate training and logistics.
“I can’t rule out anything or rule in anything. It is
something at the concept stage and it will take a couple of years before we
firm up our ideas on this,” said Admiral Verma.
The navy’s eyes will be focused on the Zhuhai Air Show, in China,
in mid-November for more details that might emerge about China’s
new stealth fighter.
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